Predicting MCAT scores

Practice tests and the real thing

So what do your practice MCAT test scores tell you about how you'll do on the real MCAT. To find out, we collected data from our site members on how they did on practice tests and how they did on the real MCAT.

We had a couple of surprises. First, of all types of practice tests only one had any predictive power. All the others were basically useless in predicting how you would on the real MCAT.

So, how do Kaplan practice tests do. Not so good - the courses are great - but in our data set the practice tests were useless in predicting your real MCAT score. The Kaplan practice MCAT test scores only accounted for 14% of the variance in real MCAT scores.

Real MCAT scores plotted against Kaplan practice MCAT scores. The practice scores are averaged by students - so a single student might have taken several Kaplan practice MCATs, but only their average Kaplan score is plotted.

The Princeton Review practice tests did only slightly better. The practice MCAT scores were generally proportional the real scores (40% of the variance in the MCAT scores is accounted for by the TPR scores) - BUT on average the TPR scores were 2 points lower than the real scores. That makes sense when TPR has to live up to its "improvement guarantee" - having a 2 point cushion between their practice tests and the real MCAT makes it easier for TPR to keep its guarantee money.

Real MCAT scores plotted against Princeton Review practice MCAT scores. The practice scores are averaged by students - so a single student might have taken several TPR practice MCATs, but only their average TPR score is plotted.

The clear winner? The AAMC practice tests. These practice MCAT scores accounted for 67% of the variance, and there was no substantial offset between the two score sets. So, on average, the AAMC MCAT practice tests were the best predictors of your eventual MCAT score. This was true for all three sections (we didn't collect data on the writing section).

Real MCAT scores plotted against AAMC practice MCAT scores. The practice scores are averaged by students - so a single student might have taken several AAMC practice MCATs, but only their average AAMC score is plotted.

Here's the all important caveat. We gathered a lot of data - but there are lots of practice tests out there, so our correlations are limited. The relationships look real - but take them with a grain of salt.

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